Yoweri Museveni has claimed victory in Uganda’s most traditional elections, potentially extending his presidential rule to 41 years. The elections have confidence been marred by frequent claims of rigging, malpractice and intimidation. At the receiving kill of this used to be his completely brutalised opponent, the pop superstar-turned politician Robert Kyagulanyi, in total is known as Bobi Wine.
The save a query to is, what’s next?
Museveni’s political celebration – the Nationwide Resistance Motion – has been the ruling celebration in Uganda since 1986. However its status has now hit rock backside within the country’s city areas, severely among younger other folk.
Kampala, like most of Uganda’s city areas, has prolonged been an opposition stronghold and the town roar to Museveni used to be certain even earlier than Bobi Wine arrived on the political scene in 2017.
It be tough for someone to take dangle of exactly how noteworthy make stronger Wine and his Nationwide Solidarity Platform relate all the easiest contrivance thru the country. However what’s sure is that Museveni has been rejected within the capital. Wine’s celebration obtained 9 of the 10 parliamentary seats in Kampala, with the 10th being retained by its incumbent, an self reliant MP. Museveni’s celebration also obtained correct 8% of the mayoral votes solid in Kampala.
Of the a tall number of challenges going thru the president, the mobilisation of younger other folk residing in city areas is one that clearly will now not dissipate. Uganda has one amongst the youngest populations on this planet, with a median age of 17. Furthermore, between 2015 and 2020 its city enhance payment used to be better than any utterly different country globally. Equipped that disaffected city formative years are so central to Nationwide Solidarity Platform’s make stronger infamous, city opposition is at threat of fester and grow after this disputed election.
On the one hand, Uganda finds itself in uncharted territory. The overwhelmed opposition candidate is from the increasing demographic of disappointed urbanites, and his celebration has swept the board in Kampala and surrounding districts like no utterly different opposition celebration earlier than.
On utterly different hand, there is a contrivance of déjà vu. Museveni’s celebration didn’t exercise any seats in Kampala in 2016 both.
So what did Museveni enact to look at out to accept political dominance in city areas after outdated elections? And what does this imply for the prolonged toddle?
Our analysis explores this. It specializes within the Nationwide Resistance Motion’s strive to dominate Kampala over the rest twenty years, and especially since 2010.
It reveals the breadth of concepts and tactics used in opposition to city opposition. Wads of money, institutional restructuring, waiving taxes and regulations, militarisation and open terror on the streets have confidence been among them. However they’ve all failed to kill Kampala’s residents from vote casting in opposition to him.
Uganda is at a crossroads. It is evident that Museveni is running out of tactics, and alternate as typical just isn’t any longer going to be ample. Either the country’s younger, urbanising population needs to be taken noteworthy extra seriously by the regime, or Museveni takes the country down the motorway of all-out defense pressure dictatorship.
Two decades of shifting concepts
Most media consideration has understandably been targeted on the brutal repression of opposition. However, we can see that Museveni’s prolonged campaign to claw support make stronger in Kampala used to be multifaceted. It integrated efforts to manipulate institutions and co-opt city formative years, besides to coerce.
Since the early 2000s, Museveni has made efforts to exercise over Kampala’s sizable numbers of informal workers. He constructed make stronger among the town’s market distributors, carpenters, salon operators, restaurant house owners and transport workers by repeatedly intervening to forestall the town council from implementing taxes and regulations. He also showered workers’ associations with micro finance schemes and utterly different sporadic favours. This can also just have confidence even yielded some results with an uptick in make stronger in 2011’s election..
However it turned obvious between 2011 and 2016 that his push to transform the town thru the brand new Kampala Capital City Authority also made him unpopular with informal workers. Many found themselves at the sexy kill of “radiant up” operations on the town’s streets.
In the toddle-up to the 2016 election – all the easiest contrivance thru which period Bobi Wine’s politically-charged tune used to be already rattling the president – Museveni even co-opted a dozen of Uganda’s utterly different main pop stars into his rep campaign tune.
This failed to forestall his very low vote fragment in Kampala in 2016. He then went into overdrive to rep shut affect among city formative years and opposition figures. He established an informal “ghetto fund” and “brown envelopes”, allegedly diverting money from official executive projects, and sent “socialites” and “philanthropists” into city slums to distribute money and user items.
Wine’s home neighbourhood of Kamwokya used to be a say purpose for Museveni. His Dispute Home acolytes wrote great cheques to formative years organisations – handouts that took plan largely exterior official channels.
On this appreciate, Museveni’s strive to make make stronger in city areas within the 2021 elections used to be now not simplest about repression. However it peaceful failed.
What, then, will Museveni enact next?
Fierce city opposition didn’t forestall him from claiming a “sizable margin” of victory. At least, over three quarters of Uganda’s population peaceful live in rural areas, and Museveni has constantly dominated rural Uganda.
Given this, it is that you just may maybe presumably well be in a station to include that he may maybe presumably well correct abandon efforts to exercise city make stronger, as a change adopting a contrivance of containment in the direction of Bobi Wine and his city followers.
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There are, on the other hand, now not lower than two appropriate causes to think this now potentially not.
The first is Uganda’s crude urbanisation trajectory. The roar of city opposition, if passed over, will simplest grow. The stability of voters is shifting a long way from Museveni, and he knows it.
The second is that forsaking cities to the opposition will imply affirming very excessive levels of city militarisation and repression, especially since Bobi Wine (now released) will and not utilizing a doubt strive to proceed mobilising his infamous.
This level of ongoing brutality is now not at threat of be what the regime needs. Museveni likes to screen other folk that is boss in public, viciously and periodically; however now not constantly. His relationship with Western donors is peaceful valued, and complete-blown defense pressure rule is now not an correct possibility.
He may maybe presumably well strive to provide something new to provide city dwellers – such as predominant transport and housing projects or industrial jobs.
However for causes touching on to land tenure, corruption and the town’s politics, Kampala is a notoriously tough context wherein to bring these kinds of projects. That’s why the regime has constantly fallen support on informal favours and populist gestures. Evidently these don’t appear to be any longer ample to kill city opposition mounting.