After a full of life (and in fact busy) wild card weekend, the NFL playoff area has been trimmed down to eight supreme groups. The divisional round slate presents many angles for bettors, whether against the spread, on the moneyline, or on the over/below.
A week, this column presents a detailed breakdown of our favourite bets, weaving in a preview of unfamiliar facts from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL presents. Take a look at us out now to indicate our full having a bet predictions for every game of the divisional round, alongside with projections and most productive bet ratings from our NFL Supreme Wager Mannequin.
All facts presented is as of Friday morning. That you might possibly furthermore be conscious all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Slip Dashboard.
Divisional Round Making a bet Picks: Unfold purchase of the week
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
When will folks quit doubting the Rams? These guys steady encourage defying the percentages in front of our eyes, and yet Vegas presents them a touchdown this weekend? Sign me up.
Los Angeles has the finest defense within the league, led by sensible doubtless the most finest plod-rushers in NFL history in Aaron Donald and elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams D can dominate every stage of the realm and place the life of an opposing quarterback a residing nightmare.
Final I checked, Aaron Rodgers has a reasonably unpleasant be conscious file within the playoffs against elite defensive gadgets. That’s no longer to steal faraway from his insanely spectacular abnormal season, for which he’ll doubtless settle AP Most Treasured Participant honors. For the second time in his profession, he completed the abnormal season with over 40 touchdowns and in any case a 115.0 passer ranking. Supreme three assorted QBs be pleased done that, and all bought MVPs all over those seasons. In maintaining with NFL.com, he’s also the major QB in 10 years to lead the league in both metrics (48 passing TDs, 121.5 QB ranking).
Nonetheless as Rodgers is conscious of all too successfully, abnormal season accolades don’t always translate into playoff success. Crazy things happen within the playoffs, and tall game plans and defensive execution originate as much as play bigger parts in wins. He and Matt LaFleur are clearly jelling, nonetheless no D can quit a team lifeless in its tracks admire the Rams.
Apt glimpse at what the Rams did against the Seahawks final week. Twelve days after starting QB Jared Goff had thumb surgical treatment, coach Sean McVay made the anxious decision to originate backup John Wolford within the major round of the NFL playoffs. This guy had “Finance” listed as his LinkedIn alternate earlier than the previous week! Successfully, Wolford began and bought knocked out of the game with a upsetting hit to the pinnacle and neck. Goff got here in — throwing thumb quiet convalescing — and did finest enough to fetch LA the settle, shouldered largely by rookie relieve Cam Akers (28-131-1) and the aforementioned dominance of his defense.
Wolford checked relieve out of the clinical institution that same night after being given the thumbs-up (I needed to) by clinical doctors to celebrate the tall settle alongside with his team. He’ll be looking out at from the sideline in Green Bay this weekend, as Goff returns to his feature because the Rams’ starting QB. Goff, who disagreed with McVay’s decision to originate Wolford over him final weekend, mentioned he’s steady to head.
In his lone profession meeting with the Packers, Goff threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns and posted a 111.0 QB ranking. If he duplicates that style of success this week, this game would be an immediate classic. He’ll need any other sturdy efficiency from Akers, moreover to the mature receiver tandem of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Rodgers has a pair of wide playmakers in receiver Davante Adams and running relieve Aaron Jones, and both be pleased a nose for locating the live zone.
Sooner or later, I feel in regards to the Packers settle this game, and Rodgers finally squares off against Patrick Mahomes in a Dapper Bowl that StateFarm might no longer be pleased scripted better. Nonetheless I don’t search the Packers running away with it, especially in a cool-climate stadium against sensible doubtless the most more elite defenses this league has ever viewed. If Goff can lead the Rams to a 30-20 playoff victory over Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, he can lose by much less than a touchdown to Rodgers within the playoffs.
Divisional Round Making a bet Picks: Moneyline purchase of the week
Buffalo Funds (-145) vs. Baltimore Ravens
When you happen to merely need a lock for this week, I might be more lawful to head with the Packers over the Rams, or the Chiefs over the Browns, nonetheless that you just might salvage literally no worth in anyway in those moneylines. Green Bay’s ML is -320. Kansas Metropolis’s? A whopping -510. Thus, my moneyline purchase of the week is a Funds team that’s appreciated by the fewest facets of any this weekend (-2.5).
Oddsmakers seem to be giving reigning MVP Lamar Jackson too worthy credit whereas giving 2020 MVP candidate Josh Allen too dinky. What presents? Jackson has struggled with accuracy and decision-making at occasions this season, whereas Allen steady continues to fetch successfully because the campaign progresses.
Jackson threw for steady 179 yards final week in Baltimore’s 20-13 settle over the defensively-challenged Titans. He had no passing touchdowns and threw one interception. Grand admire many of his games in 2019, the injury he inflicted primarily got here on the bottom, as he completed with 136 speeding yards and a touchdown. Rookie JK Dobbins, bruising relieve Gus Edwards, and wideout Marquise Brown blended to add any other 100 yards speeding (Brown also had seven catches for 109 yards).
There’s no doubting Jackson’s penchant for making tall performs, and “Hollywood” Brown lumber appears to be luminous on the steady time. Nonetheless, straightforward and straight forward, Buffalo has been the upper team all season and has proven no signs of slowing down for somebody.
On wild card weekend, Allen led Buffalo to a anxious 27-24 settle over mature Philip Rivers and the Colts, who featured sensible doubtless the most upper defenses within the league this season. The Funds completed with 397 total yards, 301 of which got here thru the air.
That became as soon as Buffalo’s seventh consecutive victory, and 10th settle in 11 games. Its finest loss since Oct. 19 got here in Week 10 in Arizona, on a final-second, game-a success Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins. If no longer for that play, the Funds might furthermore wish had a shot on the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
Nonetheless this team became as soon as intended to encourage rolling and possibly benefited from having to play final week. It has moderately plenty of fight and a hell of moderately plenty of skill on both aspects of the football. Allen’s chemistry with Stefon Diggs has doubtless guided the mature receiver to his first All-Expert selection. Diggs led the NFL this season with 127 catches and 1,535 yards, and he place up a line of 6-128-1 final week. He had eight touchdowns this season, one bigger than breakout rookie receiver Gabriel Davis.
Diggs and Davis join mature slot receiver Cole Beasley, moreover to mature speedster John Brown, to invent an electrical foursome of playmakers. Allen has no narrate spreading the ball round to whoever finds separation. He has developed an Aaron Rodgers-admire stage of area vision and pocket consciousness, and he’s lockstep with Brian Daboll and his offensive playbook. When defenses sell out to quilt the plod, he in most cases burns them alongside with his legs. Living proof: He ran 11 occasions for 54 yards and a ranking final week against Indy.
Baltimore has been sensible doubtless the most upper defenses within the NFL this season, and Jackson is quiet sensible doubtless the most more attractive QBs within the game on the present time. The Ravens clearly bought moderately plenty of address from Las Vegas after going 7-2 in avenue contests this season and getting sizzling gradual within the year. Nonetheless there’s a reason they bought bounced from the playoffs final year after a 14-2 abnormal season and a reason they finest went 1-1 straight up as a avenue underdog this season. They invent no longer be pleased a real passing game. Baltimore completed the season ranked lifeless final in yards thru the air.
Meanwhile, Leslie Frazier’s Funds defense has made huge enhancements down the stretch. The Funds completed the abnormal season with the second-most productive turnover percentage (15.3 p.c) and the third-most takeaways (26). Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (119 tackles) and cornerback Tre’Davious White (three INT, 11 PD), both Expert Bowlers, lead a gritty, proud unit.
This Buffalo team feels destined to fetch to the AFC Championship (and maybe beyond). It completed tied for the second-most wins within the league this season, yet it sits because the right favourite with below -150 odds to advance to the following round. The Funds be pleased proven time and time again that if others don’t give them recognize, they’ll plod out and fetch it themselves. Buffalo wins 27-23.
Divisional Round Making a bet Picks: Over/below purchase of the week
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns: UNDER 57
It’s straightforward to peep why 80 p.c of money and 97 p.c of tickets are on the OVER for this game. The Browns offense has been sizzling sizzling, and Kansas Metropolis has in a diagram managed to spice up upon its Dapper Bowl-a success machine. Nonetheless we at BetQL admire the worth presented by the UNDER, which our Supreme Wager Mannequin backs with a 5-well-known individual self belief ranking.
The having a bet public might furthermore be pleased fallen victim to recency bias. The Browns are coming off a 48-37 barnburner settle over the division-rival Steelers on wild-card weekend. They scored a defensive touchdown on the major play from scrimmage after Pittsburgh sailed its first snap into its accept as true with live zone and Cleveland security Karl Joseph fell on it. The Browns had a 28-0 lead on the live of the major quarter, which salvage 22 situation the tone for sloppy, frenetic play the leisure of the game. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger completed the major half with three interceptions, nonetheless in a diagram racked up 500 passing yards and four TDs by the live of the game.
As soon as you take hang of your breath from that busy recap, steal into consideration a pair facts from that contest. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski, who deserves Coach of the Yr consideration, became as soon as looking out on the game from relieve dwelling in Cleveland after testing lumber for COVID-19. High cornerback Denzel Ward suffered the identical destiny, a destiny dozens of Browns gamers be pleased met all over the direction of the season.
With out its head coach and its second-most productive defender, the Browns defense packed it in too early with a tall lead. It lost its focal level and bought gashed for colossal performs all over the second half. Nonetheless the Browns quiet prevailed with their first postseason settle since 1995 and first playoff settle on the avenue since 1969.
Stefanski and Ward are relieve in motion this week, so we at BetQL anticipate a worthy assorted image than the 87 facets we noticed in Pittsburgh. Despite every thing, Cleveland’s three previous games averaged a total of 37 facets.
The Chiefs be pleased a formidable offensive assault, which doubtlessly performs a wide part in all people and their mom pounding the OVER here. Nonetheless steal into consideration about a components earlier than jumping on the bandwagon:
- 1. Kansas Metropolis averaged 25.3 facets over the direction of its final six games this season.
- 2. The Chiefs committed eight turnovers of their final four contests.
- 3. Defending Dapper Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes has no longer played an NFL game in weeks. He rested all over KC’s inconsequential Week 17 tilt with the Chargers, after which loved a first-round playoff bye.
- 4. The Chiefs defense has drastically improved in its first year below coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. KC ranked 10th in facets surrendered this season.
By all diagram, plod for the OVER whenever you happen to expertise rooting for excessive-scoring theatrics. Nonetheless 57 facets looks diagram too excessive for our liking, especially brooding in regards to the UNDER has hit in four of the seven dwelling games whereby KC served because the favourite this season. Our Mannequin projects the major-half total at 27 facets and live-game total at 54 facets. I in my belief admire the Chiefs to settle 30-23.
For more having a bet analysis and facts, head over to BetQL and take a look at our model’s most productive bets, difficult facts, and worthy more and plenty more for every playoff game! That you might salvage all updated NFL traces, spreads, and odds at BetQL!